As commercial airlines recover from the COVID-19 pandemic, they are now facing a shortage of new aircraft amid surging travel demand, compounded by supply chain and quality challenges. This has resulted in a backlog of over 16,000 orders for narrow- and wide-body aircraft, leading airlines to delay retirements and increase demand for maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) services. This delay in retirements also limits the availability of used serviceable materials (USM), traditionally used to mitigate MRO costs for older fleets. While the immediate future shows strong MRO growth due to the need to service aging aircraft, this growth is expected to slow as next-generation aircraft, which require less maintenance, are introduced into service. Overall, MRO demand is projected to grow at a modest rate of 1.2 percent annually through 2034.
The commercial aviation landscape is further shaped by an expanding fleet, larger seat capacity, and extended range capabilities of new aircraft. The global in-service fleet is expected to grow by 3.2 percent annually, with narrow-body aircraft making up nearly 70 percent of the fleet by 2034. Despite supply chain challenges, aerospace OEMs plan to increase output, with total aircraft deliveries projected to rise by 4 percent annually from 2024 to 2034. However, the introduction of next-generation aircraft will influence MRO spending patterns, with demand for airframe services expected to remain flat due to the composite structures of new aircraft. Engine MRO will account for the largest share of spending, particularly as technological issues with new engines are resolved. The Asia-Pacific region is anticipated to remain the largest MRO market, growing 0.8 percent annually and accounting for 32 percent of the global market by 2034. MRO providers must adapt their strategies to balance current demands with future needs, positioning themselves for long-term success as the fleet mix evolves.
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